Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 76245.313280 80543.085719 84844.176521 89468.490108 94296.592542 99185.642018 104507.541828
2026-01-04 69652.774358 76230.954757 83000.676180 90478.739234 98498.111396 106830.236327 116132.179308
2026-01-11 64750.909943 72887.406811 81447.515704 91105.238547 101678.419542 112882.065148 125631.369353
2026-01-18 60648.321864 69914.289505 79845.474863 91249.577818 103950.258803 117627.281897 133435.714161
2026-01-25 57341.534052 67501.493088 78569.523855 91475.618479 106063.028013 121990.687838 140646.520638
2026-02-01 54333.817309 65194.207162 77201.473167 91398.008857 107657.959069 125632.078185 146934.003279
2026-02-08 52193.265916 63720.977998 76637.612606 92100.656906 110022.191776 130051.423149 154037.257389
2026-02-15 49866.134400 61894.186236 75543.754155 92077.584155 111454.617918 133333.649025 159789.729804
2026-02-22 48515.289822 61127.657583 75605.841228 93330.148671 114310.582758 138217.643892 167375.840819
2026-03-01 47060.533467 60156.387902 75356.281193 94153.215329 116615.181160 142432.832292 174177.718829
2026-03-08 45246.216884 58668.448468 74417.533156 94087.938322 117812.442755 145311.901536 179391.804064
2026-03-15 43770.911364 57528.662550 73838.332308 94400.187528 119416.186969 148641.629391 185126.731427
2026-03-22 42951.589887 57177.594744 74206.526070 95864.166770 122427.945824 153689.654108 192982.878493
2026-03-29 41967.041783 56579.634593 74239.836838 96895.263412 124905.140555 158105.756793 200113.574549
2026-04-05 40864.266208 55787.265671 73993.863010 97549.225565 126899.580029 161932.965158 206546.261264
2026-04-12 39591.101678 54729.704769 73374.113715 97699.909225 128244.768235 164955.880013 212002.684276
2026-04-19 38434.055854 53779.419619 72851.599459 97938.473433 129673.214689 168066.872564 217568.508442
2026-04-26 37196.885780 52682.197749 72103.632714 97856.314958 130672.430910 170632.978111 222461.667973
2026-05-03 36391.384569 52123.135963 72019.859513 98599.199658 132697.045223 174466.031445 228934.932107
2026-05-10 35296.871239 51144.378928 71361.349171 98574.800742 133726.826202 177049.062351 233856.041073
2026-05-17 34826.392548 50983.371950 71753.188390 99898.992272 136475.550258 181793.627673 241505.049107
2026-05-24 34192.436064 50578.830762 71806.939350 100769.027778 138635.566754 185802.634050 248251.008643
2026-05-31 33208.709001 49667.135844 71163.100955 100700.028431 139564.791233 188245.878395 253024.279294